Bitcoin’s Four-Year Compounded Annual Growth Rate Drops to Record Low of 8%

Ethereum-to-bitcoin ratio hits lowest level since 2020, as four-year CAGR goes negative.

Updated Mar 12, 2025, 9:38 a.m. UTCPublished Mar 12, 2025, 9:37 a.m. UTC

Bitcoin's (BTC) four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has dropped to its lowest recorded level of 8%, according to Glassnode data.

The four-year period was chosen to align with bitcoin’s (BTC) halving cycle while also capturing the typical bull/bear market cycle, which tends to follow a similar timeframe.

In March 2021, four years prior, bitcoin was trading around $60,000, near the peak of the previous market cycle. The decline in CAGR is expected as bitcoin's volatility and returns diminish over time as the asset matures.

However, this metric is highly dependent on the reference points. In 2021, Bitcoin was experiencing a blow-off top early in the cycle, whereas in March 2025, $80,000 could be marking a cycle bottom.

The ether (ETH)-to-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio has also entered negative CAGR territory at 6%, reflecting the underperformance of ethereum's native token compared to bitcoin. This decline is primarily due to ether price remaining essentially flat since February 2021, which is now below $2,000.

Currently, the ETH/BTC ratio stands at 0.024, marking its lowest level since late 2020.

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ETH/BTC 4yr CAGR (Glassnode)

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James Van Straten

James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin's role within the broader financial system. In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).

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